Today, UPS released its first quarter earnings report. The company made $1.7 billion in profit for the first quarter. Profitability beat expectations.

US Parcel volume declined 3.2% compared to the first quarter of 2023, from around 18.6 million average daily packages in 2023 to 18.1 million in the first quarter of 2024. But, the steepest decline was confined to January, with volume recovering in February and March.

Source: UPS Q1 2024 Earnings Presentation

Most parcel carriers saw a dip in volume and revenue in 2023, as retail demand flattened in a post-pandemic “re-set”. The parcel market is expected to stabilize on an upward course in 2024.

Industry analysts project parcel volume to increase around 10% in 2024:

Source: Pitney Bowes Parcel Shipping Index for 2023

UPS’s revenue for the quarter was $21.7 billion, a 5.3% decrease from the $22.9 billion first quarter revenue in 2023. 

UPS pulled in $90.1 billion in revenue in 2023 and projects revenues of $92-$94 billion for 2024. UPS projects steady growth to revenues of $108-$114 billion by 2026.

UPS faces growing competition from Amazon, which surpassed UPS in volume of parcels delivered for the first time in 2023. UPS is responding by investing $9 billion in automation initiatives; Teamsters are responding by ramping up organizing efforts with Amazon workers.